Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13575

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13574, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13575
    29 Oct 2026, 01:33 UTC

    SERPINB9

    microglia, braak

    predictionSERPINB9 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8644560f08e13d68

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    af2060be9778682e2263e641…
    follows 237f80a2fa80…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13575: SERPINB9 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.26, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SERPINB9 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.