Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13554

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.504). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13553, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13554
    29 Oct 2026, 00:56 UTC

    TPD52L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPD52L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered25bbf9ec952a6491

    discovery-0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.504)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b0ab6b773329ccfaa05b85c7…
    follows 108738dd9d3e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13554: TPD52L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.03, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPD52L1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.