Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13553

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13552, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13553
    29 Oct 2026, 00:56 UTC

    TPD52L1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTPD52L1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaab2d6f0528fc05b

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.393 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    108738dd9d3eaafb5eaa5956…
    follows 607b4214ca63…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13553: TPD52L1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to +0.00, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPD52L1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.