Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13523

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.135). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13522, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13523
    29 Oct 2026, 00:13 UTC

    RPS6KA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS6KA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede720dfcf9ba37b48

    discovery-0.54 p=0.135 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.135)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    338d670df3e8c5a7eccac0da…
    follows f0b76516b926…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13523: RPS6KA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS6KA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.