Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13522

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13521, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13522
    29 Oct 2026, 00:13 UTC

    RPS6KA1

    microglia, braak

    predictionRPS6KA1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered663d605bc2047e33

    discovery-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.569 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.549)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0b76516b926b2c88d87b9e0…
    follows d11616548415…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13522: RPS6KA1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS6KA1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.