Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13515

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.761). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13514, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13515
    29 Oct 2026, 00:04 UTC

    PILRB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPILRB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc468e83948d26512

    discovery+0.12 p=0.761 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.761)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0697f76e60d6322afb905512…
    follows 92a13d23e91c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13515: PILRB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PILRB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.