Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13433

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.237). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13432, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13433
    28 Oct 2026, 22:05 UTC

    BRK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBRK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd22d6bda1e2b6d30

    discovery+0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.44, p 0.237)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    938097f6876edc05010ddfca…
    follows e874115351e7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13433: BRK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.76 (p 2.5e-4, n 18) vs +0.12 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BRK1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up BRK1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.7e-4)