Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13407

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13406, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13407
    28 Oct 2026, 21:28 UTC

    POU3F2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPOU3F2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbcadcabb8c8e60e4

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dcbde9a4ca9950c11096757d…
    follows d43c827907f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13407: POU3F2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POU3F2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.