Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13391

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13390, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13391
    28 Oct 2026, 21:03 UTC

    C2orf80

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC2orf80 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaec04cecd3b6f4f5

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4e425c41b908e483fd894198…
    follows 9c13872a24fd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13391: C2orf80 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.26, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C2orf80 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.