Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13390

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.129). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13389, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13390
    28 Oct 2026, 21:03 UTC

    C2orf80

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionC2orf80 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered143b17e8f9b8c45e

    discovery-0.54 p=0.129 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.129)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c13872a24fd470d35a83c9a…
    follows 8a1a69228100…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13390: C2orf80 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.40, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C2orf80 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.