Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13361

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.803). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13360, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13361
    28 Oct 2026, 20:23 UTC

    RNF5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered293631161eeee14c

    discovery+0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.803)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4ac5aada653a074fd8fcfde1…
    follows f627c5f09aa5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13361: RNF5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.