Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13360

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13359, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13360
    28 Oct 2026, 20:23 UTC

    RNF5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRNF5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredec8cb2d29fafb472

    discovery+0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.869 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f627c5f09aa50c4a9458c035…
    follows 74db0f8763e2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13360: RNF5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.