Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13341

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out -0.02 p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13340, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13341
    28 Oct 2026, 19:52 UTC

    PCDH11X

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCDH11X in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb03a128b9340154b

    discovery+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.77 p 0.015; held-out -0.02 p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9b4e8fe5b12e7a74573580fc…
    follows 9c6cb63127e8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13341: PCDH11X in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH11X in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.