Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13274

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13273, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13274
    28 Oct 2026, 18:19 UTC

    CFAP65

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCFAP65 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e1c35734b98f99e

    discovery-0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    eac618599af6e09f821c2c6a…
    follows 69fc8271d7ab…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13274: CFAP65 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.71 (p 9.1e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFAP65 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.