Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13272

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13271, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13272
    28 Oct 2026, 18:16 UTC

    ENPP6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionENPP6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered72635da5cf436673

    discovery-0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.199 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b05ef32e495ff22ef3fdb59e…
    follows 1ab6f59141b8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13272: ENPP6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ENPP6 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.