Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13267

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13266, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13267
    28 Oct 2026, 18:11 UTC

    MGAT3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMGAT3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede9762e353867120e

    discovery+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication-0.90 p=0.0011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7d44edadfc187860ea839eb3…
    follows ffd5725f68ed…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13267: MGAT3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MGAT3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.