Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13199

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13198, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13199
    28 Oct 2026, 16:37 UTC

    SYNPO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYNPO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered94d8c1b5c6f9a8f1

    discovery-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e9c4f2042231e5a98ab7c248…
    follows 8d865374a53e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13199: SYNPO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs -0.23 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYNPO in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SYNPO · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.65 p 0.021 (needs p < 1.7e-4)