Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13182

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.237). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13181, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13182
    28 Oct 2026, 16:13 UTC

    ARHGAP45

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered814b8ad84181408a

    discovery-0.44 p=0.237 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.237)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b707dde83c21b55dedf235f5…
    follows 9159c4498df0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13182: ARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.55 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ARHGAP45 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.23 p 0.424 (needs p < 1.7e-4)