Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ARHGAP45

Rho GTPase activating protein 45

translation score 0.45, read 2026-10-28; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
no papers tie it to Parkinson's yet1.00
pathways
Reactome
4 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 13174

Sealed predictions

  1. ARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.44 (p 0.237) → -0.69 (p 0.042)receipt 13182

Swarm cases

receipt 13182: ARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.12. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.55 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP45 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ARHGAP45 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.23 p 0.424 (needs p < 1.7e-4)

Receipts

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