Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13177

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.981). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13176, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13177
    28 Oct 2026, 16:07 UTC

    XAF1

    microglia, braak

    predictionXAF1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a16f084305c3ab0

    discovery+0.01 p=0.981 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.981)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5d6434efccfacee2c719ce59…
    follows d2516331a247…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13177: XAF1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XAF1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.