Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13155

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13154, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13155
    28 Oct 2026, 15:39 UTC

    PPM1E

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPM1E in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbc56fe31c8231374

    discovery+0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication+0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0e2e9105b20a4ddb754e99fa…
    follows 05b724643320…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13155: PPM1E in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.11 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1E in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.