Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13149

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13148, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13149
    28 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC

    EDNRB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEDNRB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered04483b4ee4366297

    discovery-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b6c75e6a00713a5e7fcda6a9…
    follows 58cbaf9ce811…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13149: EDNRB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EDNRB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.