Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13148

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.601). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13147, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13148
    28 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC

    EDNRB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionEDNRB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered08d7e3c322fda161

    discovery-0.20 p=0.601 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.601)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    58cbaf9ce811433e26532348…
    follows 88a6a5afca34…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13148: EDNRB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EDNRB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.