Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13121

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.654). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13120, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13121
    28 Oct 2026, 14:53 UTC

    SEMA4D

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSEMA4D in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered773ecf9a4fbb8767

    discovery-0.17 p=0.654 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.654)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22141ce92181dab8cfeb9696…
    follows e69d34deb1fb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13121: SEMA4D in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEMA4D in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.