Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13108

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13107, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13108
    28 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC

    CNTN5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCNTN5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc76828b71ce2ff50

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc70e0bf74b5fd07b1908af9…
    follows 81905a7e6085…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13108: CNTN5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CNTN5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.