Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13053

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13052, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13053
    28 Oct 2026, 13:20 UTC

    ZDHHC20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZDHHC20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede716d6c889b40be9

    discovery+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ecc66fd1964f5c857c31219c…
    follows 83f8f6ab5d43…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13053: ZDHHC20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZDHHC20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.