Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12979

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12978, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12979
    28 Oct 2026, 11:40 UTC

    ORAI1

    microglia, braak

    predictionORAI1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4816eec155d5eee0

    discovery+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.086 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f49c9b67808414a4ceba0c2f…
    follows 3db20f362cf8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12979: ORAI1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ORAI1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.