Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12947

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12946, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12947
    28 Oct 2026, 10:55 UTC

    TANK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTANK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered57301b6a111491a2

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ecb9ab685ff5e6e1107e2138…
    follows 6ca390301f28…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12947: TANK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TANK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.