Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12934

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12933, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12934
    28 Oct 2026, 10:39 UTC

    TBC1D4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3cd49a4373151272

    discovery-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ff2abc45e621cb9a80f0757…
    follows 8d4ed90927d2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12934: TBC1D4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.