Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12933

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12932, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12933
    28 Oct 2026, 10:39 UTC

    TBC1D4

    microglia, braak

    predictionTBC1D4 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd83ea9b0536d7446

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8d4ed90927d259797d6ee0c2…
    follows cecc373d89c7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12933: TBC1D4 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D4 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.