Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12915

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12914, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12915
    28 Oct 2026, 10:14 UTC

    APCDD1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAPCDD1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered854d4d687d3be6c2

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    186098ae7dfbf9e05eccb2b9…
    follows f76af5944cc5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12915: APCDD1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.26 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APCDD1 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up APCDD1 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.182 (needs p < 1.7e-4)