Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

APCDD1

APC down-regulated 1

translation score 0.45, read 2026-10-28; 2 sealed predictions, 0 held; 3 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
cell type enhanced, including oligodendrocyte progenitor cells; strongest in endometrial stromal cells0.75
chemistry
Open Targets
reachable by antibody0.45
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 770.91
pathways
Reactome
in no curated pathway0.00

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 12908

Sealed predictions

  1. APCDD1 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.45 (p 0.219) → -0.75 (p 0.019)receipt 12916
  2. APCDD1 in oligodendrocytes, braak-0.55 (p 0.123) → -0.07 (p 0.859)receipt 12915

Swarm cases

receipt 12916: APCDD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APCDD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

receipt 12915: APCDD1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.60 (p 0.0089, n 18) vs -0.26 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APCDD1 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up APCDD1 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.38 p 0.182 (needs p < 1.7e-4)

Receipts

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