Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12876

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.393). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12875, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12876
    28 Oct 2026, 09:24 UTC

    MLC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMLC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae4ec0b3953983fe

    discovery-0.33 p=0.393 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.393)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a430c3bc6d08dc48cc7aa80a…
    follows a37b81e7e0da…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12876: MLC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MLC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.