Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12875

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.016; held-out +0.30 p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12874, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12875
    28 Oct 2026, 09:24 UTC

    MLC1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMLC1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6d9d5f6282af50d7

    discovery-0.77 p=0.016 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.77 p 0.016; held-out +0.30 p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    a37b81e7e0da7a8a088ac0f3…
    follows f64ea309fcdd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12875: MLC1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MLC1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.