Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12868

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12867, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12868
    28 Oct 2026, 09:16 UTC

    TBC1D12

    microglia, braak

    predictionTBC1D12 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6205be1355d5d79c

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9b621c9a41713869678bd81a…
    follows fd546ccb4701…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12868: TBC1D12 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D12 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.