Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1285

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1284, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1285
    17 Oct 2026, 19:13 UTC

    GABRG1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGABRG1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e9766149fbb9290

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    20eb7f9e8169723b5665c868…
    follows 78c81b270fa4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1285: GABRG1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.18, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GABRG1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.