Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12810

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12809, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12810
    28 Oct 2026, 07:56 UTC

    CTDNEP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTDNEP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a3d2f4793b2b4e4

    discovery-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.043 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d00c6277f6cfb6389f13b67c…
    follows d136006bb79b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12810: CTDNEP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTDNEP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.