Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12809

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12808, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12809
    28 Oct 2026, 07:56 UTC

    CTDNEP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCTDNEP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4e1ed5cadb1fb4b1

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d136006bb79b1854fda8ca3b…
    follows 568355da94cd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12809: CTDNEP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.12, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTDNEP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.