Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12777

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.39 p 0.299). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12776, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12777
    28 Oct 2026, 07:08 UTC

    TNFRSF18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddf44a34e881521d1

    discovery-0.83 p=0.0058 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.299 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.83 p 0.0058; held-out -0.39 p 0.299)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1964305bbba0b8082349cc7d…
    follows e0f53ae6b8f5…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12777: TNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.69 (p 0.0015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.