Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

TNFRSF18

TNF receptor superfamily member 18

translation score 0.48, read 2026-10-28; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
compounds already reach it: trx-518, ragifilimab0.81
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 1460.91
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 12770

Sealed predictions

  1. TNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.83 (p 0.006) → -0.39 (p 0.299)receipt 12777

Swarm cases

receipt 12777: TNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.69 (p 0.0015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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