Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12753

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12752, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12753
    28 Oct 2026, 06:35 UTC

    C1QA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC1QA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6cd06e4feebf5acb

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7547f5ae9a47be58e0cb9e28…
    follows 2da05d8ce9e1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12753: C1QA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1QA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.