Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12752

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.467). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12751, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12752
    28 Oct 2026, 06:35 UTC

    C1QA

    microglia, braak

    predictionC1QA in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf04d21111895ca6c

    discovery+0.28 p=0.467 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.467)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2da05d8ce9e18764332914be…
    follows 11cbb88683a8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12752: C1QA in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1QA in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.