Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12740

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.554). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12739, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12740
    28 Oct 2026, 06:18 UTC

    RFX4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRFX4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered65e98e1b5ab1d199

    discovery+0.23 p=0.554 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.554)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ff9040b8e64f87252f097ec…
    follows 0cc953e36d34…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12740: RFX4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.18, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RFX4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.