Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12727

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.151). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12726, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12727
    28 Oct 2026, 06:01 UTC

    CERS3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCERS3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered155874789dd98901

    discovery+0.52 p=0.151 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.151)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e2a07ea31d05b877f7290deb…
    follows 4f361e31e881…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12727: CERS3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CERS3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.