Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12697

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12696, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12697
    28 Oct 2026, 05:20 UTC

    OR2L13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR2L13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2d1ab4ad847f2df9

    discovery+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f4fe3222c142ee36966a273…
    follows 6f12e36ce6cf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12697: OR2L13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR2L13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.