Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12625

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12624, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12625
    28 Oct 2026, 03:37 UTC

    RYR3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionRYR3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9fc0502b6ad2c58d

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e65af2bff175de677d54a0a2…
    follows ab7607665ca9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12625: RYR3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18), 95% CI -0.05 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RYR3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.