Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12499

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.143). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12498, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12499
    28 Oct 2026, 01:36 UTC

    TMEM132A

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM132A in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68d2e54d7a3a297a

    discovery+0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.130 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.143)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7212617558add73a1e67efab…
    follows b6f3baa47e30…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12499: TMEM132A in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM132A in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.