Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12467

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12466, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12467
    28 Oct 2026, 00:54 UTC

    MFHAS1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMFHAS1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd236f69c086c49f0

    discovery+0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.689)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1086ea16cff0088bc74099b4…
    follows e45a31c2e400…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12467: MFHAS1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MFHAS1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.