Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12460

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12459, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12460
    28 Oct 2026, 00:46 UTC

    HLA-G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHLA-G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb7b997880a5077ef

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.393 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a1a81e11bb2b77d7ed773a7…
    follows a73a1d72576c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12460: HLA-G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.06, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLA-G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.