Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12452

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12451, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12452
    28 Oct 2026, 00:35 UTC

    CADM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCADM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f05a8ba45ed3098

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.304 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a923e18e2b1738fcf9dc66f4…
    follows 7c4bf8e03fec…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12452: CADM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CADM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.